Thu, Nov 13, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 317 | 06 | 06 | 11 | 430 |
| EDM | 07 | 113 | 217 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:51OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Chris Phillips, Clarke MacArthur · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:41OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 12:57EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: David Perron, Nikita Nikitin · Snap, 0.49 xG3–1
- P3 9:35EDMJordan EberleAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–2
- P3 13:45EDMJeff PetryAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:39OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 14:38EDMKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:38OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:17EDMTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:45EDMJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:17OTTEric Gryba: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:17EDMKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:17OTTEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:17OTTEric Gryba: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:06EDMMark Arcobello: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:25OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:02EDMBenoit Pouliot: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:28EDMDavid Perron: Embellishment2 min
- P3 16:28OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 18:25OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Chiasson9:29
xG 0.24–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Zibanejad8:48
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Legwand – Neil – Smith5:49
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Stone – Lazar8:02
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson10:35
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci6:36
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:24
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 2–3
- Perron – Arcobello – Yakupov12:33
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Purcell2:43
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Joensuu5:00
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Fayne9:33
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry12:41
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Aulie – Schultz13:37
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).