Thu, Nov 13, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 2, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 17 | 08 | 227 |
| LAK | 08 | 014 | 05 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13DALRyan GarbuttGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:13DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:36LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:36DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:27DALRyan Garbutt: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:02LAKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:55DALShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min
- P1 15:28LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:46LAKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:31DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:37LAKJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin10:55
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Sceviour8:21
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – McKenzie2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:01
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn10:17
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:05
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Dillon3:24
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Williams – Kopitar7:33
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson5:40
xG 0.33–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – Clifford4:43
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar2:28
xG 0.04–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin6:44
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McBain – McNabb3:44
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb10:56
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).