Fri, Nov 14, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 215 | 014 | 438 |
| PHI | 15 | 112 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Tim Erixon · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:58PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:10CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Tim Erixon, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 3:21PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 9:47CBJNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 13:37CBJJames WisniewskiPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.47 xG4–2
- P3 1:10PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Claude Giroux, Steve Mason · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:59PHIMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09CBJJared Boll: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:41PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:21CBJMichael Chaput: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40PHIJason Akeson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:10CBJCorey Tropp: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Johansen – Gibbons11:16
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Boll – Tyrell – Chaput4:53
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Tropp – Wennberg9:04
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Jenner10:53
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Savard16:56
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout14:41
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon13:14
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare6:01
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Read – Couturier12:00
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Akeson7:21
xG 0.08–0.39 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds13:06
xG 0.34–1.08 (24%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Colaiacovo – Coburn10:36
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann10:44
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Colaiacovo2:27
xG 0.05–0.15 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).