Fri, Nov 14, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 1, Washington Capitals 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 016 | 15 | 128 |
| WSH | 010 | 010 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:38NJDMichael CammalleriGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:34NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:25WSHMike Green: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:31NJDJacob Josefson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:18WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P2 11:23NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:33WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:33NJDDainius Zubrus: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:40WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:25NJDTuomo Ruutu: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Bernier – Gionta9:05
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson5:15
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Elias – Ryder – Havlat7:33
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac10:58
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHelgeson – Larsson8:56
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas14:06
xG 0.72–0.66 (52%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson10:30
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr8:40
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Latta – Kuznetsov4:04
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky8:36
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle8:54
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson12:43
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Green – Schmidt9:26
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:24
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).