Fri, Nov 14, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 110 | 117 | 240 |
| TOR | 05 | 012 | 114 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:18PITPascal DupuisAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Brandon Sutter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 0:15PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Robert Bortuzzo · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 6:31TORCody FransonUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:10PITSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:26TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:30PITChris Kunitz: Holding2 min
- P2 7:30TORMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:07PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:05TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:38PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:46TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:07
xG 1.43–0.11 (93%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill2:26
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Spaling9:22
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Bennett6:16
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres11:06
xG 1.22–0.19 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo11:52
xG 0.85–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang13:05
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri4:22
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Panik – Leivo4:32
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:28
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – Kadri6:37
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Rielly2:14
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Robidas – Polak3:22
xG 0.05–0.28 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Robidas – Rielly7:58
xG 0.25–0.49 (33%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).