Fri, Nov 14, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 08 | 010 | 126 |
| DET | 111 | 220 | 16 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Drew Miller · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 11:16CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 4:49DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 5:59DETTomas TatarAssists: Joakim Andersson, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:51DETBrendan SmithENAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:05DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P1 10:55DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:19DETJimmy Howard: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:03CHIJonathan Toews: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:24CHIBryan Bickell: Holding2 min
- P2 19:23DETTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:44CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Smith – Kruger9:57
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw3:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad6:18
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Toews – Saad4:15
xG 0.18–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson2:41
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Keith – van Riemsdyk17:55
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Oduya – Seabrook3:14
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Abdelkader – Jurco7:58
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan8:36
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist9:14
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening9:13
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:14
xG 1.17–0.45 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Quincey3:37
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser9:44
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).