Fri, Nov 14, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 213 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 434 |
| FLA | 18 | 010 | 211 | 09 | 1 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:37FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 13:09NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:08NYIRyan StromeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Jaroslav Halak · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:57NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 9:58FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 17:25FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Hayes · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 4. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:36FLATomas Kopecky: Kneeing2 min
- P2 10:34NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:53NYIJaroslav Halak: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 0:58NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:56FLABrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:11NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:43FLAWillie Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:57NYIRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin3:15
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares4:36
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome8:09
xG 0.42–0.33 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey5:09
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:56
xG 0.96–0.19 (84%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:51
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Hamonic – de Haan16:00
xG 0.32–0.93 (26%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Trocheck6:05
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Barkov9:53
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:34
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Fleischmann6:03
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Ekblad13:38
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
- Campbell – Robak13:45
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Campbell3:52
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).