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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 15, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Montréal Canadiens 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI08210111329
MTL2121739628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:47MTLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:49MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:17MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:01PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:46PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–3
  6. P3 1:02MTLPA ParenteauGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–4
  7. P3 5:38PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–4
  8. P3 13:18MTLDale WeiseAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
  9. P3 17:01MTLDale WeiseAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:14PHIJason Akeson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:43PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 13:02MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 1:01MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
  5. P2 5:05PHICarlo Colaiacovo: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P2 9:18MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 9:18PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 13:33MTLBrendan Gallagher: Holding2 min
  9. P2 14:43MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 4:33MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
46% to win54% to win
← PHI attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIMTL
29Shots on goal28
3.3Expected goals2.7
67Shot attempts49
28Faceoffs won37
5Power plays3
11Penalty minutes15
29Hits15
11Blocked shots23
10Giveaways11
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn8:32

    xG 1.15–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0

  2. Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds6:45

    xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  3. Schenn – Read – Couturier3:16

    xG 0.06–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  4. Simmonds – Read – Couturier6:39

    xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestStreit – Del Zotto2:36

    xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0

  2. Schultz – Grossmann2:36

    xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Streit – Grossmann11:41

    xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:11

    xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0

  2. Eller – Weise – Sekac2:36

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Malhotra – Pacioretty – Weise2:08

    xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  4. Prust – Eller – Sekac7:46

    xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeaver – Beaulieu2:48

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  2. Gonchar – Emelin9:49

    xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0

  3. Gilbert – Beaulieu4:04

    xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.7 xGPHI 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #200 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).