Sun, Nov 16, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 014 | 38 | 00 | 325 |
| MIN | 311 | 09 | 05 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Justin Fontaine · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:11MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:45MINZach PariseAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 5:55WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Matt Halischuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:19WPGEvander KaneAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 10:47WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Adam Pardy, Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:01MINMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:21WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:51MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:16MINJustin Fontaine: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:31WPGAndrew Ladd: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:15MINKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:15WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:25MINJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:17MINRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:24WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:38WPGMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 15:25MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:25WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:25MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:25WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:53MINKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:53MINKeith Ballard: Embellishment2 min
- P3 2:19WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P3 15:40MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little6:00
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Ladd – Little – Frolik2:09
xG 0.03–0.01 (71%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Halischuk2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Lowry2:46
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba4:03
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Pardy – Postma5:47
xG 0.27–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian11:03
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise10:29
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Fontaine3:36
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Vanek – Haula – Zucker5:34
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Granlund – Niederreiter6:22
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:10
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Ballard – Scandella2:04
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba3:04
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).