Sun, Nov 16, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 26 | 27 | 419 |
| DET | 07 | 03 | 119 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:20MTLBrandon PrustAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 8:36MTLP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 1:47MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 4:06DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 8:41MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:10DETJoakim Andersson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:53MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 1:15MTLSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:51MTLSergei Gonchar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:27MTLDale Weise: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:53DETDrew Miller: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:14DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 2:08MTLNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:58MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:58DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:35MTLTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:42DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Sekac7:38
xG 0.29–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:34
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty9:44
xG 0.24–0.24 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Pacioretty – Weise2:02
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Gilbert5:08
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu3:59
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban13:28
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFranzen – Nyquist – Sheahan2:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan2:26
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Abdelkader – Jurco4:22
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader5:17
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smith – Lashoff8:44
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – DeKeyser2:07
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser6:12
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).