Sun, Nov 16, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 6, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 417 | 16 | 629 |
| ANA | 19 | 016 | 110 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:16ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Emerson Etem · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:23FLABrad BoyesAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:11FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 10:02FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 17:19FLABrad BoyesPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 4:55FLANick BjugstadAssists: Brad Boyes, Dylan Olsen · Snap, 0.06 xG6–1
- P3 18:15ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Josh Manson, Emerson Etem · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:08FLATomas Kopecky: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:18FLAColby Robak: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:39
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Fleischmann10:03
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Barkov10:44
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck10:45
xG 0.54–0.79 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Ekblad16:49
xG 0.69–0.70 (49%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
- Campbell – Robak16:56
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson15:55
xG 0.80–1.22 (40%)attempts 17–26goals 3–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Beleskey – Silfverberg6:12
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon10:45
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Karlsson5:48
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Etem – Karlsson4:11
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen18:22
xG 1.14–0.60 (65%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm15:45
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Stoner – Fowler15:56
xG 0.73–1.13 (39%)attempts 16–23goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).