Tue, Nov 18, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 09 | 110 | 228 |
| NYI | 012 | 312 | 212 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53TBLAlex KillornAssists: Jason Garrison, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 0:39NYICal ClutterbuckSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 12:23NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:26NYIRyan StromeGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 0:36NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 2:14TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Matt Carle, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 8:55NYICasey CizikasAssists: Kyle Okposo, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:08TBLEvgeni Nabokov: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:01TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:42NYIMatt Martin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:32TBLJT Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 19:52NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P2 1:57TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:54TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:16TBLAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P3 6:21NYIJosh Bailey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:56NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:56TBLRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:42
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos14:09
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Killorn – Brown4:24
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin7:12
xG 0.73–1.45 (34%)attempts 5–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman13:41
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr2:12
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr11:24
xG 0.87–0.97 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Strome4:11
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:05
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Okposo6:38
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares5:43
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan14:32
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:19
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Leddy2:46
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).