Tue, Nov 18, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 114 | 315 | 540 |
| CBJ | 012 | 08 | 08 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:44DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 4:49DETTomas JurcoPPAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 6:01DETRiley SheahanAssists: Brendan Smith, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 18:59DETDarren HelmAssists: Tomas Jurco, Daniel Cleary · Snap, 0.10 xG5–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:43DETBrian Lashoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:40CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16CBJJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:35DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 4:41CBJRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:01CBJScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:01CBJScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:39DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:39CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:41DETKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan7:39
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Cleary – Helm – Jurco8:18
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening8:20
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist13:41
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lashoff9:09
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:22
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Quincey3:36
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Jenner6:38
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Atkinson – Jenner2:10
xG 0.20–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Jenner2:59
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Gibbons – Wennberg3:40
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Prout15:03
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Savard12:02
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Wisniewski – Erixon15:13
xG 0.50–0.88 (36%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).