Tue, Nov 18, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 412 | 28 | 625 |
| DAL | 26 | 010 | 211 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48DALJamie BennAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:34DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:34CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:00CARPatrick DwyerAssists: John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 8:30CARVictor RaskPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 15:54CARJiri TlustyAssists: Elias Lindholm, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 0:09CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–2
- P3 2:38DALCody EakinSHAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 12:55DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Cody Eakin · Deflected, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 16:03CAREric StaalAssists: Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.12 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:49CARVictor Rask: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:49DALCurtis McKenzie: Holding2 min
- P2 7:16DALJordie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:22CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:22DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:04CARJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P3 0:48DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:53DALErik Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 8:29CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Lindholm12:16
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Boychuk6:53
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Nash8:16
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Terry – Skinner – Rask7:34
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk16:39
xG 1.15–0.71 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 3–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore16:04
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Liles – Gleason8:31
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Hemsky10:30
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin13:02
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel8:12
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – McKenzie5:48
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Klingberg2:35
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Benn – Oleksiak9:16
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Dillon – Klingberg16:39
xG 0.81–1.04 (44%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).