Tue, Nov 18, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 06 | 213 | 232 |
| LAK | 08 | 417 | 12 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:32LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Brayden McNabb, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 9:46LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Dwight King, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:18LAKMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 19:52LAKRobyn RegehrAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 2:01FLAJimmy HayesPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.47 xG1–4
- P3 6:55FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 16:49LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Justin Williams, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:50LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:28LAKTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46FLAJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P1 17:46LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:42FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:10FLADerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:36LAKMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:27FLARocco Grimaldi: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:46FLAShawn Thornton: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:30LAKRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:18FLARocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Trocheck9:04
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:43
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Fleischmann6:25
xG 0.00–0.14 (1%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Grimaldi4:36
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Robak12:34
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Ekblad13:12
xG 0.43–0.40 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson2:37
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis7:39
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli10:21
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Stoll – Pearson10:35
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Clifford6:49
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty4:44
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Greene – McNabb9:10
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Regehr – Greene3:04
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).