Thu, Nov 20, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 17 | 216 | 329 |
| PHI | 014 | 113 | 112 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:59MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Marco Scandella · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 14:31PHIMark StreitAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 1:42MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 16:30PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:14MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:32PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:16PHINick Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:10MINKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:10PHIR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 9:06PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:06PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:01MINKeith Ballard: Interference2 min
- P2 19:15PHINicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:40PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:40MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:04MINNate Prosser: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Zucker – Coyle10:21
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Fontaine2:53
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund5:05
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Haula – Fontaine2:16
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser7:59
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Dumba5:54
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:32
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn11:59
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Laughton6:55
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare3:42
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier7:53
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann10:05
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Schultz – Coburn13:27
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald3:22
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).