Thu, Nov 20, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 26 | 214 | 427 |
| WPG | 08 | 314 | 09 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Evander Kane, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.41 xG0–1
- P2 9:32WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 10:02DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:52DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Tomas Jurco, Danny DeKeyser · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:12WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:00DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Riley Sheahan, Brian Lashoff · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 15:10DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:23WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P1 7:20DETKyle Quincey: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:56WPGAdam Pardy: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:14DETTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:13WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:34WPGAdam Lowry: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan8:31
xG 0.89–0.56 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 3–1
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist10:54
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Cleary – Helm – Jurco9:03
xG 0.14–0.33 (31%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening9:19
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLashoff – Ouellet12:00
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:23
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:57
xG 0.23–1.10 (18%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Halischuk2:33
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:24
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Frolik – Lowry – Scheifele11:18
xG 0.05–0.30 (14%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:20
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Pardy – Postma3:29
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba11:06
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).