Thu, Nov 20, 2014·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 111 | 011 | 227 |
| LAK | 112 | 218 | 09 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53LAKJarret StollPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:16CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:37LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Marian Gaborik, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 2:21CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 2:59LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:24LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:21CARJay McClement: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:03LAKMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:06LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:06CARBrad Malone: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:06CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:06CARBrad Malone: Misconduct10 min
- P1 13:52LAKMarian Gaborik: Interference2 min
- P2 2:13LAKTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:05CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nash – Lindholm4:32
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – Boychuk2:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Skinner2:31
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Nash3:42
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk6:31
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore14:55
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Gleason – Sekera6:33
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown10:38
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis11:38
xG 0.93–0.48 (66%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli8:04
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Richards – Clifford – Pearson9:09
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty14:41
xG 1.44–0.56 (72%)attempts 23–11goals 2–1
- Greene – McNabb14:40
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – Greene2:30
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).