Thu, Nov 20, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 19 | 010 | 03 | 2 | 328 |
| SJS | 012 | 113 | 13 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24FLANick BjugstadAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:19SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 17:23FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:26SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 4. FLA Jussi Jokinen scored
- 5. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:07SJSAndrew Desjardins: Holding2 min
- P2 4:41FLADmitry Kulikov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:16FLAWillie Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:56SJSTommy Wingels: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:38SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Grimaldi – Barkov10:02
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Trocheck6:47
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:18
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky8:37
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kulikov16:15
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:07
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:32
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Hertl10:43
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Wingels – Goodrow11:17
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Desjardins – McGinn7:14
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Nieto9:31
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:16
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Hannan – Burns13:52
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Demers – Mueller11:33
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).