Fri, Nov 21, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 313 | 16 | 014 | 02 | 2 | 535 |
| PIT | 25 | 117 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13PITBrandon SutterAssists: Paul Martin, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:18NYIMatt MartinAssists: Travis Hamonic, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 8:47NYINikolay KuleminUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 9:53NYIRyan StromeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P1 16:34PITBlake ComeauAssists: Chris Kunitz, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 5:42NYINick LeddyAssists: Ryan Strome, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 8:50PITNick SpalingAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 13:00PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 2. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 5. PIT Brandon Sutter stopped
- 6. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:59PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:59NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:59PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:25NYIThomas Hickey: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:25PITSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:21
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Okposo7:40
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares5:49
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bailey – Lee – Strome6:51
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:24
xG 1.13–0.16 (87%)attempts 24–7goals 1–1
- Hamonic – de Haan17:28
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 19–17goals 2–2
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:42
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Goc – Sill4:37
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Spaling13:29
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 2–3
- Downie – Sutter – Bennett12:31
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Comeau – Crosby15:03
xG 0.13–1.06 (11%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Letang2:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang19:41
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Maatta15:37
xG 0.35–0.76 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).