Fri, Nov 21, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 2, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 219 | 03 | 226 |
| EDM | 08 | 08 | 013 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:39NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Steve Bernier, Eric Gelinas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:07NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Gelinas · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:24EDMTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:35NJDEric Gelinas: Holding2 min
- P1 16:15NJDMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:31EDMDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:27NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Ruutu – Josefson8:04
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Bernier – Gionta7:21
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Elias – Havlat – Henrique8:29
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac11:14
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Helgeson – Larsson11:09
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson15:14
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas15:53
xG 0.58–1.08 (35%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Arcobello – Yakupov9:02
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl7:52
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins5:54
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin10:21
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 20–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Marincin2:56
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry4:03
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).