Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 110 | 05 | 127 |
| TOR | 18 | 010 | 310 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:39TORLeo KomarovAssists: Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:28DETTomas TatarAssists: Xavier Ouellet, Brian Lashoff · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 3:44TORTyler BozakSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 15:38TORPeter HollandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:13TORTyler BozakENAssists: Daniel Winnik, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:36DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:21DETLuke Glendening: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:38TORPeter Holland: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:03DETJohan Franzen: Holding2 min
- P2 8:03DETGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:34TORStephane Robidas: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:09TORStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Tatar – Sheahan9:31
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Helm – Jurco8:18
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist11:26
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening6:54
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser13:01
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Lashoff – Ouellet12:40
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:36
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Panik – Leivo6:11
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:37
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Kadri11:57
xG 0.31–0.47 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Winnik – Holland9:19
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Gardiner6:41
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner5:09
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Robidas – Rielly8:02
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).