Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 07 | 012 | 128 |
| NYI | 09 | 113 | 313 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 18:01NYIMatt MartinAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 2:38NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Thomas Hickey · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 9:47NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 15:46NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.29 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:24NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:50PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:59PITBeau Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:59NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:17NYIThomas Hickey: Holding2 min
- P3 9:01PITSteve Downie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01PITSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30PITZach Sill: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Comeau – Spaling2:55
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Crosby12:10
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Spaling10:27
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Goc – Sill3:34
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Maatta16:42
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Letang2:02
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres11:20
xG 0.57–1.01 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Kulemin – Tavares14:06
xG 1.18–0.51 (70%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Lee – Nelson – Strome11:03
xG 1.12–0.65 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:00
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey11:13
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy17:17
xG 1.20–0.52 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:36
xG 1.31–0.72 (65%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan15:02
xG 0.42–0.87 (33%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).