Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 04 | 17 | 222 |
| PHI | 211 | 118 | 18 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Braydon Coburn · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:36CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 14:55PHIMark StreitAssists: Claude Giroux, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 15:17PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 2:06CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Jack Skille, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 3:18PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Matt Read, Nick Schultz · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:49PHIMatt Read: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:36PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:36CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:20PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32PHIMichael Del Zotto: Holding2 min
- P2 7:21CBJJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P2 10:06CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:06PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:02CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:46CBJJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:46CBJNick Foligno: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – Boll – Gibbons5:53
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Atkinson5:07
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Skille – Calvert – Wennberg8:14
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Jenner2:33
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Connauton14:41
xG 0.82–0.72 (53%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Leopold – Savard16:20
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Johnson – Prout14:27
xG 0.43–0.99 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn13:01
xG 1.14–0.52 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier12:40
xG 0.36–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Laughton8:50
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Coburn14:09
xG 0.61–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:50
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Streit – MacDonald2:14
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).