Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 014 | 212 | 00 | 0 | 230 |
| NSH | 014 | 119 | 112 | 05 | 1 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:26NSHColin WilsonAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 13:01NSHMatt CullenAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 19:17FLARocco GrimaldiAssists: Brian Campbell, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:29FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Derek Roy stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 5. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 7. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 8. FLA Brad Boyes stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:39FLAShawn Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:58FLADylan Olsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:50NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 2:17FLAShawn Thornton: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:46FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:20NSHSeth Jones: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Grimaldi – Huberdeau2:32
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bjugstad – Huberdeau8:08
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky8:57
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Grimaldi – Barkov7:43
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Olsen – Gudbranson12:31
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad17:36
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov13:04
xG 0.09–1.25 (7%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Smith – Jarnkrok10:01
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:12
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck8:12
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Jokinen – Roy11:42
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:53
xG 1.57–0.42 (79%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:59
xG 0.63–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Jones13:04
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).