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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 22, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Los Angeles Kings 4, Dallas Stars 5

Away

Los Angeles Kings

4

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK010315116441
DAL3132802523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:35DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:16DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jamie Benn, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:58DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P2 3:57DALTyler SeguinAssists: Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
  5. P2 9:32LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jake Muzzin, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
  6. P2 12:16LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–4
  7. P2 17:53DALJason DemersPPGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Patrick Eaves · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P2 18:29LAKMike RichardsAssists: Kyle Clifford, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
  9. P3 10:44LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:40DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
  2. P1 6:21DALAles Hemsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 10:07DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 19:10LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 4:22LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
  6. P2 6:37LAKKyle Clifford: Holding2 min
  7. P2 10:56DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 16:41LAKRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 11:15LAKTanner Pearson: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 13:08DALAles Hemsky: Interference2 min
  11. P3 18:31LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
46% to win54% to win
← LAK attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Stoll
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKDAL
41Shots on goal23
4.3Expected goals2.5
71Shot attempts48
31Faceoffs won38
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
36Hits20
11Blocked shots14
7Giveaways7
9Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestRichards – Clifford – Pearson4:24

    xG 1.04–0.13 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0

  2. Williams – Stoll – Brown6:30

    xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1

  3. Carter – Richards – Pearson4:38

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Gaborik – Kopitar – Toffoli2:49

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMuzzin – Doughty15:01

    xG 1.44–0.19 (88%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0

  2. McBain – Muzzin2:19

    xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

  3. Regehr – Doughty4:34

    xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin8:41

    xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0

  2. Moen – Fiddler – Eaves6:28

    xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0

  3. Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel8:46

    xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0

  4. Cole – Horcoff – McKenzie7:41

    xG 0.05–1.94 (3%)attempts 3–15goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. Goligoski – Klingberg11:37

    xG 0.38–0.49 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0

  2. Daley – Demers15:26

    xG 0.28–1.05 (21%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1

  3. Jokipakka – Oleksiak6:43

    xG 0.19–1.08 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.5 xGLAK 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #126 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 77% of the time.

DAL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).