Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 310 | 09 | 08 | 327 |
| COL | 17 | 112 | 216 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48CARJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:10CARNathan GerbeAssists: Riley Nash, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 10:52COLZach RedmondAssists: Tomas Vincour, Andrew Agozzino · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 16:50CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Riley Nash, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 8:25COLErik JohnsonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 14:43COLJarome IginlaAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 18:25COLZach RedmondGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:05CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23CARRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:09CARBrad Malone: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Nestrasil8:27
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Tlusty – Lindholm9:07
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone7:25
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Skinner – Rask6:45
xG 0.08–0.37 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk8:05
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–2
- Liles – Gleason6:43
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore2:45
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:48
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 3–1
- Vincour – Agozzino – Street7:27
xG 0.29–0.29 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Brière – O'Reilly – Duchene13:52
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche6:49
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Redmond11:45
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Johnson – Barrie2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson16:22
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).