Sat, Nov 22, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 38 | 310 | 112 | 730 |
| EDM | 05 | 09 | 111 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 4:43CHIMarcus KrugerGWGAssists: Ben Smith, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 15:56CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 1:16CHIKris VersteegPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–0
- P2 2:45CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Bryan Bickell, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–0
- P2 3:50CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.03 xG6–0
- P3 8:04EDMDavid PerronAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–1
- P3 10:58CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Kris Versteeg, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:09EDMKeith Aulie: Interference2 min
- P1 19:30EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:46EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:50EDMTeddy Purcell: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:18EDMKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:18CHIMarcus Kruger: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:18CHIMarcus Kruger: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:47EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28CHIMichal Rozsival: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:42EDMJesse Joensuu: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:07EDMAndrew Ference: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarcillo – Bickell – Danault7:58
xG 0.54–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad8:56
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom9:19
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane10:00
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson15:07
xG 0.58–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Keith – Seabrook9:40
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:01
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJoensuu – Arcobello – Yakupov6:18
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Perron – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:24
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pinizzotto7:10
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl9:54
xG 0.25–0.45 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin12:07
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Ference – Fayne12:30
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Aulie – Schultz10:24
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).