Mon, Nov 24, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 110 | 012 | 11 | 333 |
| BOS | 010 | 214 | 04 | 01 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 1:43BOSMilan LucicAssists: Loui Eriksson, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 2:11BOSJoe MorrowAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 9:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 0:32PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:07PITPaul Martin: Holding2 min
- P1 15:21BOSReilly Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:49BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:30BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30PITSimon Despres: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56PITPaul Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 17:29BOSAlex Khokhlachev: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau12:24
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Goc – Sutter – Megna3:37
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Goc – Megna3:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Spaling14:09
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang17:31
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres10:50
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Maatta16:38
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Soderberg – Lucic15:26
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille11:11
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith13:15
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Morrow12:41
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton2:15
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Miller17:26
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).