Mon, Nov 24, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 07 | 212 | 326 |
| DET | 119 | 312 | 012 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:45DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
- P2 2:23DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jimmy Howard · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 13:34DETStephen WeissAssists: Kyle Quincey, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 17:52DETStephen WeissGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Tomas Jurco · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–4
- P3 2:43OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Jared Cowen · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:25OTTChris NeilAssists: Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:15DETTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:58DETKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:30OTTAlex Chiasson: Holding2 min
- P1 15:58OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30OTTCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43OTTKyle Turris: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:31DETGustav Nyquist: Interference2 min
- P3 5:24OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:25DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Stone – Lazar5:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson11:35
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Legwand – Ryan – Zibanejad5:03
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Michalek – Smith5:36
xG 0.03–0.26 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci2:02
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki3:28
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci4:50
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Helm – Jurco6:52
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:46
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Franzen – Tatar – Sheahan8:19
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:12
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Ouellet10:25
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser12:06
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:45
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).