Mon, Nov 24, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 214 | 116 | 19 | 439 |
| FLA | 05 | 19 | 016 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:43MINNino NiederreiterGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 5:34FLAShawn ThorntonAssists: Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 17:19MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:31MINZach PariseENAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:40MINKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:40FLAJimmy Hayes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:11FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:58MINKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:51MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:20FLABrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:30MINKeith Ballard: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Vanek – Zucker10:27
xG 1.36–0.49 (74%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter9:26
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund12:48
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Carter – Fontaine6:18
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser12:48
xG 1.40–0.35 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:16
xG 0.99–0.57 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Ballard – Dumba7:37
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Pirri5:59
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov12:23
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Upshall – Hayes2:42
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Huberdeau3:59
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Ekblad4:09
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kulikov3:22
xG 0.03–0.03 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad12:42
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).