Tue, Nov 25, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 212 | 19 | 432 |
| CBJ | 18 | 014 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:09WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:42CBJJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, David Savard · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 16:25WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 16:56WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 9:47CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:42WPGEvander KaneENAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:48WPGMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:19CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
- P1 9:19CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:19WPGChris Thorburn: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:19WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:19WPGChris Thorburn: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 16:32WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:57CBJRyan Johansen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 12:45WPGMathieu Perreault: Kneeing2 min
- P2 14:15WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59CBJScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28WPGEvander Kane: Holding2 min
- P3 18:51CBJAlexander Wennberg: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:53
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Frolik – Lowry – Scheifele5:44
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Lowry4:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma7:37
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba11:17
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Bogosian6:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Anisimov – Gibbons3:12
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Jenner5:08
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen14:06
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Atkinson – Gibbons4:16
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Savard13:11
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson2:42
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton12:27
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).