Tue, Nov 25, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 17 | 16 | 01 | 0 | 321 |
| NSH | 112 | 28 | 09 | 04 | 1 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24NSHCraig SmithAssists: Colin Wilson, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:32LAKJamie McBainAssists: Justin Williams, Marian Gaborik · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:01LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Jeff Carter, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 17:36NSHRyan EllisAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:28NSHEric NystromAssists: Taylor Beck, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 0:38LAKDrew DoughtyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Derek Roy stopped
- 2. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. LAK Marian Gaborik stopped
- 5. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 6. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 7. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 8. LAK Tyler Toffoli stopped
- 9. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 10. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
- 11. NSH James Neal scored
- 12. LAK Dwight King stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:48NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:37LAKJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:53LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:18LAKBrayden McNabb: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 12:23NSHShea Weber: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 16:48NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:28LAKRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Lewis – King – Clifford7:44
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Carter – Richards10:00
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Williams – Stoll – Brown10:25
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Pearson11:12
xG 0.12–0.59 (17%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McBain – Muzzin3:40
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty5:54
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Regehr – McBain6:03
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Smith – Jarnkrok9:07
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck7:40
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg12:40
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Cullen – Jokinen – Roy9:59
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:03
xG 0.81–0.36 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Jones11:30
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm13:32
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).