Tue, Nov 25, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 117 | 010 | 110 | 237 |
| DAL | 116 | 212 | 06 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 19:30EDMBoyd GordonSHAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:59DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:42DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 5:59EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:53EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min
- P2 8:03EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:03DALTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:31EDMAndrew Ference: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:25EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:50DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P3 12:17DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:28EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:47
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pinizzotto4:51
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Yakupov – Draisaitl2:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Purcell – Perron – Arcobello11:36
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Marincin9:02
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Fayne13:42
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Ference – Petry17:25
xG 0.35–0.79 (31%)attempts 19–23goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Hemsky4:54
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin7:37
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin4:28
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt6:39
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Demers17:12
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 21–21goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:53
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak13:53
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).