Wed, Nov 26, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 16 | 111 | 224 |
| DET | 17 | 313 | 15 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12DETStephen WeissAssists: Darren Helm, Jakub Kindl · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 2:31PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:18DETTomas JurcoAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 11:47DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 18:39DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Darren Helm, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 12:25PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:38DETHenrik ZetterbergENAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:28DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:08DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P1 15:35PHIMichael Raffl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:59PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
- P2 11:42PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P2 14:53DETKyle Quincey: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:53PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:13DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn14:23
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl10:36
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Rinaldo – Bellemare5:47
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Umberger – Read – Couturier7:19
xG 0.05–0.25 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto7:48
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Grossmann2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann11:10
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Weiss – Helm7:38
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Franzen – Tatar – Sheahan9:25
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening8:18
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:56
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:09
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:26
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Kindl – Ouellet11:11
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).