Wed, Nov 26, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 25 | 06 | 18 | 319 |
| TBL | 211 | 19 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:00NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:04NYRDan BoylePPAssists: Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 17:34TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 10:17TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 9:38TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 12:49NYRRick NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:39NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:53TBLBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:14TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37TBLMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:34NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Hagelin – Hayes – Duclair9:43
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider13:18
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:39
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast5:45
xG 0.01–0.46 (2%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal7:49
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – Hunwick5:19
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Paquette6:43
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Namestnikov9:32
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos14:47
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:53
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman16:33
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Barberio – Gudas17:23
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr13:48
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).