Wed, Nov 26, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 219 | 113 | 345 |
| COL | 09 | 110 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:35COLMax TalbotAssists: Marc-Andre Cliche, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 11:50CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–1
- P2 14:21CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 3:36COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Nick Holden, Alex Tanguay · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 14:43CHIBryan BickellGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:10CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:55COLTyson Barrie: Holding2 min
- P1 14:38COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:57CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:54COLTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:48COLTomas Vincour: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51COLNick Holden: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:47COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:22
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Bickell – Kane – Shaw2:08
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom9:50
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Bickell – Shaw6:08
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson2:02
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:09
xG 1.10–0.97 (53%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Keith4:08
xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Duchene6:18
xG 0.98–0.51 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:35
xG 0.95–0.52 (64%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Duchene5:15
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche2:45
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Stollery9:56
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie11:43
xG 1.38–0.81 (63%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Hejda – Redmond2:13
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).