Thu, Nov 27, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 0, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 014 | 09 | 011 | 03 | 037 |
| NSH | 07 | 08 | 09 | 11 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 3:55NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:47EDMMark Arcobello: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:34NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 4:07EDMTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:54EDMAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34NSHSeth Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49EDMKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:35NSHTaylor Beck: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:38EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:38EDMDavid Perron: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:21NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGazdic – Perron – Draisaitl6:48
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Purcell – Arcobello – Yakupov7:55
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Draisaitl3:39
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:34
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Klefbom12:30
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ference – Aulie12:39
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Ference – Fayne2:05
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Smith – Jarnkrok9:07
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Fisher – Roy7:03
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck7:39
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:17
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm11:32
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi13:58
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Jones10:08
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).