Fri, Nov 28, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 1, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 07 | 015 | 01 | 136 |
| BOS | 011 | 011 | 111 | 15 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:24WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Evander Kane, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 3:05BOSMilan LucicAssists: Carl Soderberg, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 3:39BOSDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:14WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:17BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:55BOSLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:40BOSPatrice Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P2 1:31WPGZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:30BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Frolik – Perreault – Halischuk7:07
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Slater – Ladd – Wheeler3:32
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little7:40
xG 0.28–0.46 (37%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Trouba9:56
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma5:57
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Bogosian11:18
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:26
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Lucic12:08
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kelly – Smith – Griffith7:14
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gagne – Campbell – Paille7:09
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Miller11:59
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Bartkowski – Miller2:18
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton2:26
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).