Fri, Nov 28, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 1, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 08 | 110 | 131 |
| BUF | 17 | 012 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 1:35MTLPA ParenteauPPAssists: David Desharnais, Jiri Sekac · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 18:42BUFMatt MoulsonPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:47BUFMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:28MTLAlexei Emelin: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:45BUFNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:45MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:45BUFChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:23MTLSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41MTLBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:41MTLBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:41MTLBrandon Prust: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:55BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:06MTLAlexei Emelin: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:57
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Tangradi – Weise3:34
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:34
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise2:20
xG 0.05–0.01 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Emelin16:54
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Weaver12:16
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:18
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn10:07
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons14:18
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Kaleta – Stewart – Foligno4:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Hodgson – Deslauriers2:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zadorov12:27
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Strachan – Myers17:08
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber12:11
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).