Fri, Nov 28, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 117 | 111 | 27 | 435 |
| PIT | 19 | 17 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:47CARJiri TlustyAssists: Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 16:30PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 2:54CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 15:52PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 3:10CARNathan GerbePPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:47CARJiri TlustyENAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:06CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:14PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04PITChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00PITOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:47PITSidney Crosby: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Gerbe – Nash11:10
xG 0.87–0.07 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Lindholm12:55
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McClement – Nestrasil – Skinner2:25
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Sekera2:26
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk3:17
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Gleason – Jordan5:36
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Spaling6:28
xG 0.85–0.53 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Sutter2:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist5:15
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau6:44
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang18:12
xG 1.04–0.48 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres14:09
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Letang2:18
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).