Fri, Nov 28, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 112 | 49 | 530 |
| CBJ | 08 | 011 | 012 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:25VANChris HigginsGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 0:48VANHenrik SedinAssists: Radim Vrbata, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 11:49VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Brad Richardson, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 14:38VANBrad RichardsonENAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–0
- P3 17:26VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Chris Higgins, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:16CBJScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:39VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 11:42VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:38VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P3 7:12CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Dorsett – Horvat7:36
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino10:01
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:50
xG 0.29–0.28 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Vey11:13
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Stanton13:06
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev14:53
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Sbisa16:34
xG 0.79–0.74 (52%)attempts 18–17goals 3–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen13:48
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Skille – Anisimov – Gibbons10:42
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Calvert – Atkinson – Jenner11:10
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Boll – Tropp – Wennberg5:24
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Savard15:10
xG 0.89–0.06 (94%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon15:52
xG 0.76–0.89 (46%)attempts 17–21goals 0–2
- Johnson – Prout15:43
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).