Fri, Nov 28, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 03 | 29 | 13 | 01 | 316 |
| STL | 115 | 09 | 213 | 14 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35STLT.J. OshieAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:51EDMDavid PerronAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Joensuu · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 16:46EDMNikita NikitinAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:31STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 3:55EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Taylor Hall, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 12:25STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 4:20STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Jori Lehtera, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:50STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:50EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:51EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding2 min
- P3 14:15EDMOscar Klefbom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:49EDMMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Arcobello – Yakupov11:07
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:49
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Gordon – Joensuu – Pinizzotto5:20
xG 0.05–0.31 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Perron – Draisaitl7:58
xG 0.21–0.87 (20%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Fayne16:04
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Nikitin – Schultz2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Klefbom11:20
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Lapierre – Reaves5:52
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Stastny – Oshie14:11
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko2:52
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:48
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson18:18
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Jackman – Pietrangelo14:52
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Butler – Pietrangelo3:14
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).