Fri, Nov 28, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 18 | 112 | 13 | 534 |
| DAL | 09 | 316 | 120 | 00 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:29MINJason ZuckerAssists: Nate Prosser, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 11:47MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Pominville, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 16:18DALAles HemskyAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jyrki Jokipakka · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 18:50DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Jyrki Jokipakka · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 19:49DALErik ColeAssists: Trevor Daley, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:29DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:08MINThomas VanekAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 2:04MINMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Thomas Vanek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:30DALJamie Oleksiak: Kneeing2 min
- P1 5:16MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
- P2 6:09MINKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:32DALCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:32MINErik Haula: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:05MINMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund13:09
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter11:22
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle11:18
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser4:05
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Scandella – Brodin12:43
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Prosser2:05
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin9:38
xG 0.67–0.22 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin3:25
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Hemsky5:37
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Spezza – Sceviour5:39
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Oleksiak11:52
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg18:23
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 22–16goals 1–2
- Daley – Demers15:07
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 25–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).