Sat, Nov 29, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 08 | 26 | 03 | 1 | 426 |
| MTL | 08 | 113 | 219 | 04 | 0 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 7:51MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 5:57BUFChris StewartAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:31MTLLars EllerAssists: Brandon Prust, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 13:15MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Dale Weise, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
- P3 14:04BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Brian Gionta, Torrey Mitchell · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 5. MTL PA Parenteau stopped
- 6. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 7. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 8. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 9. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 10. BUF Brian Flynn scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:42BUFChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:14MTLSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:06BUFTorrey Mitchell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Mitchell – Flynn12:58
xG 0.47–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kaleta – Deslauriers – Schaller7:44
xG 0.08–0.40 (17%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Stewart – Hodgson – Foligno13:13
xG 0.15–1.40 (10%)attempts 9–24goals 1–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:39
xG 0.16–1.50 (10%)attempts 3–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Weber – Ristolainen2:31
xG 0.02–0.06 (31%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Strachan – Myers23:24
xG 0.62–1.04 (37%)attempts 11–28goals 0–0
- Benoit – Weber9:41
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Sekac12:10
xG 1.10–0.27 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:05
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 28–6goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Tangradi – Weise5:40
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:12
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:27
xG 1.91–0.32 (86%)attempts 32–12goals 1–0
- Allen – Weaver12:02
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Emelin17:12
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).