Sat, Nov 29, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 011 | 016 | 135 |
| NYI | 111 | 115 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:40NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:27NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Adam Larsson, Michael Ryder · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:32NYICal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:55NYICasey CizikasENAssists: Frans Nielsen, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.56 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:40NJDMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:54NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P1 15:32NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:59NJDDamien Brunner: Holding2 min
- P2 13:35NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:47NJDJordin Tootoo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:47NYICal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:46NJDDamien Brunner: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:50NYIBrock Nelson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:56NYICalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Tootoo – Gionta5:25
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ryder – Cammalleri – Brunner10:11
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Bernier – Josefson8:05
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Elias – Havlat9:08
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Severson4:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Harrold6:46
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Harrold – Larsson2:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:26
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Okposo – Kulemin – Tavares10:38
xG 0.72–0.58 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:08
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Bailey10:52
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan14:34
xG 1.32–0.44 (75%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Strait – Hickey12:43
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Donovan – Leddy12:18
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).