Sat, Nov 29, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 011 | 18 | 333 |
| CAR | 110 | 014 | 110 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Victor Rask, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:56PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 5:32PITRobert BortuzzoAssists: Paul Martin, Andrew Ebbett · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 15:27PITChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 19:48CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Victor Rask, Eric Staal · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:17PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:42PITJayson Megna: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:42CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:42PITJayson Megna: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:47CARJohn-Michael Liles: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:06CARJay Harrison: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:33PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:09PITBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:15CARElias Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:50PITBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:50CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31PITNick Spaling: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau10:29
xG 0.79–0.03 (97%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Spaling9:33
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Adams – Ebbett – Sill3:44
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Megna7:44
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Bortuzzo10:15
xG 0.89–0.19 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres13:42
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Maatta15:15
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Lindholm5:07
xG 0.52–0.38 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty3:30
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Nash – Lindholm3:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Nash5:28
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Jordan6:23
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Sekera2:25
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Harrison2:07
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).