Sat, Nov 29, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 08 | 17 | 122 |
| NSH | 020 | 113 | 19 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:47NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 3:48CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 17:48NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:16CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:00NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:01CBJMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:38NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P2 14:53CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:43NSHTaylor Beck: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:35NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:36CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen8:18
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Jenner – Rychel6:38
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Skille – Calvert – Chaput4:42
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Boll – Chaput – Gibbons3:18
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Connauton11:09
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Leopold – Savard14:10
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Johnson – Prout14:34
xG 0.11–0.69 (14%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Smith – Jarnkrok10:22
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:48
xG 0.58–0.16 (79%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Jokinen – Fisher9:18
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck6:47
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Jones10:01
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi16:08
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm14:04
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).