Sat, Nov 29, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 15 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 326 |
| MIN | 010 | 217 | 011 | 00 | 0 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:20STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 14:26MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:01MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 14:27STLDavid BackesAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville stopped
- 6. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:45MINMarco Scandella: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 10:47STLJori Lehtera: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:45STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:35STLChris Porter: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47STLKevin Shattenkirk: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P2 15:47STLKevin Shattenkirk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 1:41MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Lindstrom – Berglund – Schwartz7:17
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves4:20
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:38
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Stastny – Oshie – Schwartz2:46
xG 0.10–0.44 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:41
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Pietrangelo3:35
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Cole11:05
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund12:23
xG 1.32–0.31 (81%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle9:00
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Carter – Haula – Fontaine5:28
xG 0.24–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Brodziak – Niederreiter7:48
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:29
xG 1.36–0.46 (75%)attempts 28–12goals 0–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:33
xG 0.88–0.23 (79%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Prosser7:34
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).