Mon, Dec 1, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 110 | 09 | 125 |
| CBJ | 14 | 07 | 112 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:07CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Michael Chaput, Jordan Leopold · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:23FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Sean Bergenheim · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 10:05CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Kerby Rychel · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:32CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 8:49CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:29CBJKerby Rychel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:08FLADylan Olsen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:11FLASean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Hayes – Trocheck7:48
xG 0.55–0.27 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Pirri3:50
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov8:14
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:26
xG 0.11–0.20 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Olsen – Gudbranson13:30
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Ekblad2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad13:32
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen13:58
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Skille – Calvert – Chaput10:33
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Cracknell – Boll – Gibbons4:56
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Rychel9:01
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Savard16:59
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Johnson – Prout16:01
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton13:26
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).